Ok folks, your Camp Soapbox counselor here.

Grab your coffee and pull up a stump because I decided to do a little experiment this morning.

And before anybody gets too excited, let me get something out of the way.

I am not an economist.

I don’t have a degree in economics. I don’t sit around studying charts for a living. I own a small trucking company, and like every other small carrier out here, I have to figure out what the hell might be coming next.

So I started with a simple question.

What if we went back to January 1, 2025, looked at where trucking and the economy were then, followed what actually happened through today, and then just kept that same general direction going until January 1, 2027?

Not a prediction.

Not financial advice.

Just a carrier looking down the road.

And what I found was pretty interesting.

Back in January 2025, freight was weak. There were too many trucks chasing too few loads. Rates were terrible, and everybody knew it.

Small carriers were fighting over freight just to keep the wheels turning.

Brokers knew it.

Shippers knew it.

Carriers damn sure knew it.

If you didn’t like the rate, somebody else was usually waiting behind you willing to haul it cheaper.

Now fast-forward to today.

Here’s the strange part.

Freight really hasn’t gotten that much better.

ATA reported July tonnage was actually down slightly from July of last year. DAT has also reported freight volumes that are flat or down in several equipment types.

But rates are way up.

Dry van spot linehaul recently averaged about $2.21 per mile before fuel, roughly 36 percent higher than a year ago. DAT has also reported strong year-over-year increases in reefer and flatbed.

So how in the world do you have weak freight and rising rates at the same time?

Trucks.

Or more accurately, the lack of them.

Carriers have been disappearing.

For years we talked about there being too many trucks in the market. Well, eventually something had to give.

Companies closed.

Owner-operators parked trucks.

Equipment got sold.

Some drivers left.

Other carriers downsized.

And the survivors quit adding equipment because there wasn’t enough money in doing it.

Now we’re beginning to see the other side of that.

DAT recently showed truck postings down more than 28 percent from a year ago while load postings were actually higher.

That got my attention.

Because as a small carrier, I don’t really care whether somebody on television says we’re officially in a good freight market.

I care whether there are 15 trucks available for the load my customer needs moved or three.

That’s what determines who has leverage.

And for the first time in a long time, some of that leverage appears to be moving back toward the truck.

Now don’t start ordering that new Peterbilt just yet.

There’s another side to this.

Fuel is expensive as hell.

Insurance isn’t getting cheaper.

Parts aren’t getting cheaper.

Tires aren’t getting cheaper.

Labor isn’t getting cheaper.

And God help you if something major breaks.

So just because rates are climbing doesn’t mean carriers are suddenly swimming in money.

A higher rate with much higher operating costs doesn’t necessarily mean a higher profit.

That’s the part I think sometimes gets lost when people look at trucking from outside the windshield.

But here’s where my little experiment gets interesting.

If the same basic trend continues for the next four months, I think January 1, 2027 could look very different from January 1, 2025.

I don’t think we’re headed into some giant freight boom.

I think we’re headed toward something stranger.

A capacity shortage inside a mediocre economy.

There may not be a mountain of new freight.

There may simply not be enough trucks left to haul what is already there.

And those are two completely different things.

If I’m a shipper and I have 100 loads but 150 trucks are looking for freight, I control the conversation.

If I still have those same 100 loads but now there are only 80 trucks looking for them, suddenly we have something to talk about.

That’s where I think this could be heading.

Spot rates moved first.

Now we’re starting to see contract rates move.

If capacity continues disappearing through the end of the year, I believe good carriers are going to walk into 2027 with more negotiating power than we’ve had in several years.

Not because we’re greedy.

Not because we’re trying to stick it to anybody.

Because trucks cost money to operate, and eventually the rate has to support the truck.

There’s something else I’m watching too.

What happens if freight actually does pick up?

That’s where this gets really interesting.

Right now rates are climbing mostly because capacity has left the market, not because freight is booming.

So what happens if the economy improves even a little?

What happens if freight demand goes up 3 or 4 percent and all those trucks that disappeared don’t magically come back?

You can’t rebuild trucking capacity overnight.

You need trucks.

Trailers.

Drivers.

Insurance.

Financing.

Maintenance.

And customers willing to pay enough for somebody to take the risk of adding equipment again.

That’s when this thing could turn quickly.

For those of us in specialized trucking, I think there’s another piece worth watching.

Regular construction and housing freight has been struggling, but there are pockets of industrial work that are doing very well. Data centers are one example. Machinery, electrical equipment, infrastructure and other project freight can create opportunities for flatbed, step deck, heavy haul and specialized carriers.

And specialized capacity is even harder to replace.

You can buy a truck.

You can’t buy 20 or 30 years of experience with it.

So where does my little experiment leave us on January 1, 2027?

I think freight is still going to be somewhat soft.

I think there will be fewer trucks.

I think rates will remain much stronger than they were a year or two ago.

I think contract rates will continue catching up.

And I think good small carriers are going to have something we haven’t had much of lately.

A little leverage.

But I also think the carriers that survive this need to remember what the last few years taught us.

Don’t confuse revenue with profit.

Don’t buy equipment just because rates jumped.

Don’t build your company around today’s spot market.

Know your cost per mile.

Take care of the customers who took care of you when freight was bad.

And don’t haul something just because somebody tells you that’s what the market pays.

Your truck doesn’t care what the market pays.

The bank doesn’t care.

Your insurance company doesn’t care.

And the guy selling you diesel damn sure doesn’t care.

The truck has to make money.

Maybe I’m wrong.

Like I said, I’m a trucker and a small carrier, not an economist.

But after looking at where we were in January 2025, where we are today, and the direction things are moving, I don’t think January 2027 is going to be about having more freight.

I think it’s going to be about having fewer trucks.

And if freight actually starts growing at the same time?

Well folks…

That’s when things could get really interesting.

Your Camp Counselor
JR